E A R LY W A R N I N G B U L L E T I N
Legal Indicators
• Criticism of judicial officers by senior ruling party officials in relation to unfavourable decisions in politically-laden cases;
• Persecution of the judiciary for rendering unfavourable decisions in politically-laden cases through negative publicity in
the state media, or through trumped up or spurious charges;
• Arbitrary or unwarranted banning of public assemblies organised by the opposition or civil society by the police;
• Repressive or disproportionate responses by the police to public demonstrations or other acts of social unrest
• Selective application of the law – arrests and prosecutions – in political cases, such as those involving political violence;
• Defiance of court orders.
• Beatings, torture and other acts of ill-treatment of detained opposition party members or activists by the police;
• The enactment of draconian laws; emphasis on the enforcement of repressive laws by the police; or lack of civilian control
of security forces
• Unwarranted denials of bail in alleged political cases in the courts.
• Increase in cases of violence against women and children.
• Increase on cases of politically motivated sexual violence
• Increased use of food as a political tool
• Forced displacements in farming and other areas.
• Demolitions and forced evictions
Social Indicators
• Increased presence of unknown persons/faces in local communities, especially in the rural areas, as the election draws
closer;
• Increased presence of unexplained government vehicles or unmarked cars in local communities, especially in rural areas,
as the election draws closer;
• Increased presence of military and security personnel as the election draws closer;
• Increase in acts/cases of direct or indirect intimidation;
• Increased incidents of political violence blamed on the opposition;
• Increased negative coverage of the opposition, civil society and other dissenting voices in the public media;
• Secret or private political meetings at the local level;
• Pronounced mobilisation of resources by the ruling party, e.g. procurement and allocation of new cars to districts;
• Manipulation of state-sponsored aid in favour of ruling party members;
• Increased distribution of largesse to ruling party supporters.
Administrative Indicators
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The deployment or secondment of senior security personnel to the ruling party;
Marked deployment of military and/or security personnel to different locals as the election draws closer;
Pronounced mobilisation of resources by the State or the ruling party ahead of the election
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